The Social Prediction Community
member since 2008-04-11
OLYMPICS expert
Score Rank:  *
 
Accuracy_3 Predict_6 Voted_4
 
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Guru Points 1,073 Score Rank *
Topics Published 1 Topics Predicted 225
Comments Made 170 News Added 2
Profile Views 872 Last Online 181 days ago
Score Accuracy
all-time last 30d all-time last 30d
All Predictions 3,497 0 65% 50%
News 1,497 0 65% 50%
League Sports 1,000 0 50% 50%
Stocks 1,000 0 50% 50%
About ancienthart
Name ancienthart
Location Cairns, Australia
Gender Male
Age 32
Education University
Job Title Teacher
Website
ancienthart's Authority
This list shows ancienthart's authority in the following subjects.
The more authority a user has on a subject, the more influence he/she has on related predictions.
Olympics
161
yahoo
160
microsoft
160
Google
147
wifi
140
breast milk
130
ben and jerry's
130
peta
130
ice-cream
130
nano
130
ipod
130
FCC
130
Georgia
130
nintendo
130
911
130
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Section: All News League Sports Stocks
 
[ Most Likely ] Disappear before 2050 (41% chance)
 
[ Most Likely ] Consumers Flee Big Banks (53% chance)
ancienthart's Wall
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  1. ancienthart ancienthart 181 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Won't work simply because people will report false instances for personal gain, revenge, etc.
     
  2. ancienthart ancienthart 181 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Commented on:   Will Lake Chad Disappear?
    This is an example of "The problem with commons", where a limited resource that isn't "owned" by anyone, or rather "owned by the commons" is usually mishandled and used up.
    In Europe, farmland used to be owned by the commons during the early medieval period. Because no-one was responsible for it, such commonly owned farmland was often low in fertility and yield.
    Later on, the commons were divided up and ownership handed out to peasants by the feudal lords, and wonder of wonders - when you own something, you take better care of it.
    Now deciding WHO owns a limited resource - that becomes a REAL problem.
     
  3. ancienthart ancienthart 181 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Properly regulated porn will benefit our society, but if legislators don't crack down on child and non-consensual porn, that will cause big problems.
     
  4. ancienthart ancienthart 181 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
  5. ancienthart ancienthart 181 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    It took years for people to get annoyed with Bush. Anything looks good after that.
     
  6. ancienthart ancienthart 181 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    As a digital camera consumer, I tend to dislike battery pack-based cameras. This pack will only work for cameras that are designed to use it.
    Now, if you see similar technology in an AA-form battery, then we can get excited.
     
  7. ancienthart ancienthart 181 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    This question needs to be made clearer. Does it refer to banks in US only, or globally?
    In Australia, the Commonwealth Bank is underwritten/guaranteed by the Government, thus is seen as more stable than credit unions. Additionally, St George, the biggest credit union in Australia, took a nose-dive several years ago.
    Bendigo Bank became popular a few years back, but mainly in communities that had branches of major banks shut down. The Commonweath Bank and other banks were seen to be less interested in the average customer, and this drove customers to the credit unions and community banks.
    However, since then, the large Australian banks have realised that alienating the average customer was a really bad idea, and have been doing their best to change their business practices.
    Overall, the current situation in Australia, is that community banks and credit unions have reached a plateau, and I am personally concerned that with the current economic climate, you will start to see more credit unions collapse like St George. I predict that the Commonwealth Bank will see a return of customers, but not the National Australia Bank - dodgy bastards :D.
     
  8. ancienthart ancienthart 181 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    It's the "market share" bit that makes me dubious. We still have to see if there can be a strong enough revenue stream from internet TV.
     
  9. ancienthart ancienthart 233 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Commented on:   Breed of Obama's Dog
    It will be a mutt. They're the friendliest and healthiest. I also wouldn't be all that surprised if he got it from a shelter.
     
  10. ancienthart ancienthart 292 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Commented on:   Future of George W. Bush
    Lets go through them one by one:
    Political career is shot - no-one's gonna nominate him for anything.
    Volunteer work - maybe, but I doubt he'd get much publicity for it.
    Executive - you must be joking, right? Would you let him handle your business?
    An author - this one is a pretty strong potential, though whatever he writes would most likely be ghost-written for him.
    A speaker - hah. If someone writes the speeches for him. They may trot him out now and again at semi-political rallies, but I doubt anyone would find him interesting enough to listen to full time.
    A professor? - of SFA maybe.
    Do nothing - 0%, see below.
    Other (most likely) - sit at the family ranch, life off the family wealth, give hand-jobs to big oil at social functions, try to keep his daughters out of the porn industry.
     
  11. ancienthart ancienthart 292 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Not in first quarter - we'd have to see ongoing financial difficulty over 1-2 years before they completely tank.
     
  12. ancienthart ancienthart 292 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Out of curiosity, how will this be verified?
     
  13. ancienthart ancienthart 292 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Windows ALWAYS starts to blab early about the "next great thing" - still took them roughly seven years to get out Vista.
     
  14. ancienthart ancienthart 292 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    The title and the question differ from each other - confusing.
    We won't see an economic recovery in 2009.
     
  15. ancienthart ancienthart 383 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    No doubt that Vista is dead in the water financially. (Will Microsoft _ever_ sell enough copies before the next version to recoup development costs?)
    However, most people are quite happy to stick with XP. If there is any haemorrhaging of users to Linux/Mac, it's going to be sllloooooooowwwwwwww.
     
  16. ancienthart ancienthart 391 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Economies and countries around the world seem to be scrambling to keep things together. Witness Kevin Rudd's "Christmas bonus" promises here in Australia. Russia will secure the loan to Iceland - though it won't do much to stop the meltdown.
     
  17. ancienthart ancienthart 391 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Commented on:   Canada: Ban Pellet Gun
    If they've kept the law from requiring licenses this long, then the status quo will continue in 2008. Never mind that historically, air-powered rifles were considered _the_ sniper's choice during the 100-year war in Europe. If civilisation ever collapses in Australia, spring-powered air-rifles will probably be the weapon of choice here. (No easy-to-access sulphur deposits in this, the least geologically active continent in the world. Thus, hard to make gunpowder.)
     
  18. ancienthart ancienthart 391 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Commented on:   Crude Oil Price on Nov 3, 2008
    Hard to call. At least here in Australia I can predict that even if the oil prices drop, petrol prices will stay constant or even rise.
     
  19. ancienthart ancienthart 391 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Oh yeah. Yahoo hasn't done anything in the last 1/2 decade that shows they've got "something in the background", and with a recession/depression imminent there will be plenty of pressure to "cost-cut". What people don't seem to realise, is that with software and web-services, it really only costs to produce new ideas/implementations/services. Yahoo can coast (I.e. cost-cut) on its accomplishments for a few years yet (Though it will quickly become obsolete if it does so.).
    They don't have the philosophical or business focus to generate new approaches like Google. The public perception of Yahoo is a company that had a good idea then got lazy. In this case, I think the public perception is probably pretty accurate.
     
  20. ancienthart ancienthart 391 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    This is a tough one. I see "Web 2.0" continuing as a hype, but the phrase becoming more and more ridiculous in the public eye. They'll probably give it a new hype-name of course.
     
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