The Social Prediction Community
member since 2008-05-19
MICROSOFT expert
Score Rank:  #27
 
Accuracy_3 Predict_5 News_1 Comment_1 Voted_4
 
Vitals
Guru Points 509 Score Rank #27
Topics Published 4 Topics Predicted 100
Comments Made 63 News Added 5
Profile Views 270 Last Online 3 hours ago
Score Accuracy
all-time last 30d all-time last 30d
All Predictions 3,213 79 67% 83%
News 1,211 79 67% 83%
League Sports 1,000 0 50% 50%
Stocks 1,002 0 80% 50%
About Tempus
Name Tempus
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Tempus's Authority
This list shows Tempus's authority in the following subjects.
The more authority a user has on a subject, the more influence he/she has on related predictions.
microsoft
147
Olympics
130
Myanmar
124
iran
124
Israel
124
mars
121
yahoo
118
security
115
Baidu
115
china
115
Dalai Lama
115
NASDAQ:AAPL
109
firefox
108
summer
107
movie
107
TIPS: You can click on each subject to see related predictions.
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This list shows Tempus's stock predictions that are still active.
Section: All News League Sports Stocks
 
[ Most Likely ] Attacks resulting in injuries (39% chance)
 
[ Most Likely ] No Chinese Goog music store (64% chance)
 
[ Most Likely ] Yes, if the feed content is ok (56% chance)
 
[ Most Likely ] 6 - 8 million units (65% chance)
Tempus's Wall
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  1. Tempus Tempus 14 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    No way. They'll milk it for what it's worth first.
     
  2. Tempus Tempus 18 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    What happened to France can and will happen to other countries.
     
  3. Tempus Tempus 19 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Google is an ad-based company, I can't imagine them changing their business model and getting into direct competition with Apple, among others.
     
  4. Tempus Tempus 19 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    MS already has a search engine and wants Yahoo (for many reasons). AOL is dead and simply not in a position to acquire anyone. And with Google having shown just how much you can profit from a good search engine, I doubt anyone will offer enough just now. It's wait-and-see on both sides.
     
  5. Tempus Tempus 27 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Commented on:   MacBook Touch announced soon?
    Apple is too careful for this stuff. They will introduce multi-touch gradually, not with a big step that can backfire.
     
  6. Tempus Tempus 27 days ago
    + 2 votes This is Good This is Bad
    Wikipedia is hot, but breaking at the seams. It has failed to gain the acceptance of the academic society, and that's where high-quality content for many topics would have to come from. Right now, Wikipedia is quickly becoming a collection of mundane and street-level knowledge, not an encyclopedia. By my guess, there's more articles on movies and rock bands than there is about entire fields of science. Two years from now, half of those movies and rock bands will be barely worth mentioning.

    Wikipedia is also quickly losing it's "new and shiny" factor. Lots of people are disappointed with it by now, for a variety of reasons, and its administrative structure seems bogged down in in-fighting.

    Since Knol is the only serious competitor right now (i.e. the only one with the required publicity), people will very likely jump there.
     
  7. Tempus Tempus 27 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Yes, given a few years. Google looks invisible, but that's exactly it's problem - it isn't as dynamic anymore. It can't change without millions of people crying foul.
     
  8. Tempus Tempus 27 days ago
    + 2 votes This is Good This is Bad
    There is one benefit and one harm that I see. Everything else is hogwash or not substantiated reliably (like links between rape and porn - you will find studies both ways).

    Benefit: Free expression. Porn has more than once spearheaded the Free Speech movement and done a lot of good in this area, and porn is a big enough industry to pay for this fight, contrary to Free Speech idealists.

    Harm: Porn depicts sex in a way that is not like we experience in the real world. Teens watching too much porn too early will form a wrong impression of what sex should be like. Our sex lives are already modified by porn (how many girls shave? compare that to 10 years ago).

    All in all, I'm not sure about the overall effect. Like most things, it's difficult to say "good" or "bad", unless you have black-white world-view to guide you.
     
  9. Tempus Tempus 27 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    I don't even have a TV anymore. There's nothing on it, anyways.
     
  10. Tempus Tempus 60 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Where's the "no, I already have one" option?

    I'm not lining up, but I don't agree with the "this is crazy" notion.
     
  11. Tempus Tempus 63 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Commented on:   Twitter: Acquired in Q3 2008?
    I think it's a fad that will fade soon. Like most new toys, it's cool while new, then gets abandoned. More importantly, I think that most of the people with the necessary cash on hand would think the same, and would watch it for a while longer before any acquisitions are made.

    However (that's why I predicted 40:60) it might be that its founders also realize they are sitting on a "hip for now" product, and would seek to sell it, even cheaply, to some sucker.
     
  12. Tempus Tempus 67 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
  13. Tempus Tempus 67 days ago
    + 2 votes This is Good This is Bad
    This stuff is more complicated in the real world than in the lab, and takes a good while. They will probably announce it soon, but MS is pretty bad at meeting its own deadlines.
     
  14. Tempus Tempus 70 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    0:1 for Spain was the final result.
     
  15. Tempus Tempus 76 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Where's the "I am already taking public transport" option? Poll pre-supposes that everyone is driving.
     
  16. Tempus Tempus 80 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Why not? It would frighten MS into making some sweet deals, and a penalty or two would bring in money. In addition, I'm fairly sure China doesn't want any foreign entity, be it a government or a corporation, to control too much of its vital infrastructure.
     
  17. Tempus Tempus 81 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Mozilla says they broke it, but they are still waiting for official confirmation from the Guiness people, which might take a few days.
     
  18. Tempus Tempus 86 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    The fight has become way too public for a takeover of that kind. It's obvious that Icahn has picked his fight, and it's in the media, not the market.
     
  19. Tempus Tempus 87 days ago
    + 2 votes This is Good This is Bad
    Politicians routinely make claims with no evidence whatsoever. I don't think this case will be any different.
     
  20. Tempus Tempus 90 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    There wasn't really a "one more thing..." this time, but since the entire keynote was devoted to the iPhone, that's the closest result.
     
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