Young Voters Favor Obama, but How Many Will Vote?

• 45%
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Although Barack Obama leads John McCain by almost 30 percentage points among 18- to 29-year-old registered voters, these younger voters are still less likely than older voters to report being registered to vote, paying attention to the election, or planning to vote this year. Obama is clearly the favored candidate among young voters.

But to what extent can Gallup's large daily tracking samples provide insight into whether younger voters will in fact vote at high rates? Based on Oct. 14-20 tracking data, which include interviews with more than 6,500 registered voters, 18-29-year-olds still lag well behind older voters on key predictors of turnout.

What percentage of 18-29 years old voters (comparing to all age groups) will vote? In 2004, only 17% of voters are 18-29 years old.

source:
http://www.gallup.com/pol...
http://en.wikipedia.org/w...

Community Prediction in Chance

Community Accuracy:  45%

Top Predictor:   dane-helo (68% Accuracy)

(show accuracy distribution▼)

Rank Accuracy A >= 90% B >= 80% C >= 70% D >= 60% E >= 40% F < 40%

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	ZiiValue (chance)	Answer	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	Possible Outcomes
	9%			Less than 10%
	36%			10% - 19%
	39%			20% - 29%
	16%			30% or more

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