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Would the latest occurance of the H5N1 avian flu spread this summer?
black-shoulder ( Score Rank: User did not make predictions in the last 30 days ) black-shoulder  |  was scored on 03-Sep-2008 (444 days ago)
The H5N1 avian (bird) flu is back!

Stool samples from 4 different markets in Hong Kong were examined, and it was identified that H5N1, the deadly strain of avian flu, was found. As a result (once again), chickens are massively slaughtered.

For those of you who are not familiar, in Hong Kong and some Asian countries, live chickens are sold in public markets. As a result, should a bird flu outbreak occurs among the chickens, the disease can easily spread to those handling the chickens, and the citizens who are buying the chickens. The implication, needless to say, can be catastrophic.

This is not the first time Hong Kong is struck with H5N1 - do you think this disease would spread this time around? And if so, to where? (We'll use the end of August as the cut-off for this latest round of epidemic)
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Community Accuracy:  36%
Top Predictor:   black-shoulder (43% Accuracy)
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2008-09-03
 
An experimental bird flu vaccine that uses DNA fro... (more)
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2008-08-28
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A new type of bird flu vaccine that uses a mock ve... (more)
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2008-08-27
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A new type of bird flu vaccine that uses a mock ve... (more)
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2008-08-23
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Natural Solutions Foundation alerts world to start... (more)
Comments (11)
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  1. Arthur Arthur 444 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    answered: [ * ] Yes, to the rest of the world
    (more)
    In Aug, a new strain of H5N1 bird flu has shown up among birds in Africa in a worrying development.
    [ reply ]
    1. Arthur Arthur 444 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      source: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/cont...
       
  2. Arthur Arthur 444 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    answered: [ * ] Yes, to the rest of Asia
    (more)
    This summer Pakistan and South Korea found bird flu on animals (not humans).
    [ reply ]
  3. ancienthart ancienthart 523 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 40% ] Yes, spread to China
    (more)
    Hmm. With the earth-quake, they'd certainly be susceptible to disease. Then there's all the travellers drawn in by the Olympic games.
    [ reply ]
  4. Homer Homer 526 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 54% ] Yes, spread to China
    (more)
    Do you guys know if Avian flu shots are available in the US?
    [ reply ]
    1. black-shoulder black-shoulder 525 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      Homer, are you asking about a vaccine for the birds? If that's the case, since the vaccine is developed already, it can practically be used in any parts of the world.
       
  5. black-shoulder black-shoulder 526 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 55% ] Yes, to the rest of Asia
    (more)
    If history repeats itself, migrating birds will determine how far/much the bird flu will spread. I am not an expert in avian migration pattern, but I would think that, around June, birds are fairly stationary at where they are, so that, thankfully, will limit the spread a little bit.

    That said, I just don't trust the HK government in its ability to handle any type of epidemic. SARS, the earlier episodes of H5N1... I don't think it has the ability to prevent the disease from spreading by human means.
    [ reply ]
  6. MissPig MissPig 527 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 82% ] No, nothing will happen
    (more)
    hard to say. but it seems under control now.
    [ reply ]
    1. freeman freeman 527 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      Under control how?
       
    2. MissPig MissPig 523 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      by killing all the chicks in HK :p
       
  7. freeman freeman 527 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 61% ] Yes, to the rest of Asia
    (more)
    Is there a "high season" for H5N1? I remember seeing a similar prediction last year. Seems it happens in Asia every summer.
    [ reply ]
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