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Will Moore's law prevail in the next 25 years?
boori ( Score Rank: User did not make predictions in the last 30 days ) boori  |  closed on 29-Jun-2008 (510 days ago)
Moore stated in 1965 that the rate of acceleration in electronic circuits is exponnential, thus the speed of computers will double every 2 years. see http://en.wikipedia.org/w...
Knowing that and the fact that both intel and amd are using actually the same base technology and acheiving this rate using multiplication methods (dual quad and 8 and 16 processors, see http://www.internetnews.c...) and not bringing new tecnologies (such as optic or other types of computing technology) which were big promisses fail to deliver. Do you think these companies (intel and amd) will continue to prevail?
The answers are yes using multiplication (which is the term i use for quad and 16 processors etc.).
Yes using new technology.
and finally no.
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Comments (6)
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  1. ancienthart ancienthart 575 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 60% ] No
    (more)
    Early on, the original Moore's Law said the doubling rate was 1 year, then 1 1/2 years, now 2. It is slowing down - and I think approaching an asymptote. Even if you increase the number of cores, that's just more power being sucked down, more heat being produced, and in laptops, less battery time.
    Also, there's a lot more emphasis on embedding lower-power cores into "smart" versions of normal and new devices, which doesn't really need new technology to grow. (Just some ultra-power-conservative designs.)
    In support of this theory, I point to the tech news - which lately focuses on smart-phones, smart media-players, portable movie players, innovative user interfaces (finger-tracking, wiimotes, mind-reading interfaces, laser keyboards, etc.).
    A half decade ago, the news was all about the new features in Intel/AMD cpu's. Not so much of that nowdays. Computer tech. is getting to the point where people aren't looking for a "powerful machine that does everything", but rather a "collection of handy devices that do everything, when I want and where I want." The laptop and PDA's were just the first wave.
    1. oWell oWell 569 days ago
      + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
      agree. so even though Moore's law can still apply, the industry has shifted direction from building powerful machines to building mobile (processing-efficient) machines. we should expect more smart devices with standard processing power. indeed the normal CPUs are more than enough for web browsing or word documents.
       
  2. nilimit nilimit 576 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 100% ] Y, using multiplication
    (more)
    The so-called multiplication is built on a technology SoC (silicon-on-chip). check wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System-o...
  3. humme humme 577 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 80% ] Y using new technology
    (more)
    Multiplication is more like a temp solution.
  4. cm2007 cm2007 577 days ago
    + 2 votes This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 100% ] Y using new technology
    (more)
    Nano-tech is capable to increase the circuit speed much faster than the expectation of More's law. For example, carbon nanotube can control semiconducting behaviour in molecular level instead of macro-molecular level.
  5. Homer Homer 578 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 63% ] No
    (more)
    IMHO, in the long run, it is hard to achieve exponential growth with multiplication of processors alone. So, I give it a NO for now. And so far Intel and AMD failed to introduce new processor technology to consumers. And I don't expect that to happen in the next 5 years.
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