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Will Lake Chad Disappear?
rubian ( Score Rank: User did not make predictions in the last 30 days ) rubian  |  will close on 01-Jan-2010 (41 days from now)
Lake Chad is a historically large, shallow lake in Africa, whose size has varied greatly over the centuries. It is economically very important, providing water to more than 20 million people living in the four countries which surround it - Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria. In the 1960s it had an area of more than 26,000 sq km, making it the fourth largest lake in Africa. By 2000 its extent had fallen to less than 1,500 sq km. This is due to reduced rainfall combined with greatly increased amounts of irrigation water being drawn from the lake and the rivers which feed it, the largest being the Chari/ Logone system, which originates in the mountains of the Central African Republic. It seems likely that the lake will shrink further and perhaps even disappear altogether in the course of the 21st century.

A 2001 study blamed the lake's retreat largely on overgrazing in the area surrounding the lake, causing desertification and a decline in vegetation.

Will it disappear?
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Comments (4)
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  1. ancienthart ancienthart 180 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 100% ] Disappear before 2050
    (more)
    This is an example of "The problem with commons", where a limited resource that isn't "owned" by anyone, or rather "owned by the commons" is usually mishandled and used up.
    In Europe, farmland used to be owned by the commons during the early medieval period. Because no-one was responsible for it, such commonly owned farmland was often low in fertility and yield.
    Later on, the commons were divided up and ownership handed out to peasants by the feudal lords, and wonder of wonders - when you own something, you take better care of it.
    Now deciding WHO owns a limited resource - that becomes a REAL problem.
  2. cabalco83 cabalco83 245 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 100% ] Never
    (more)
    i think never.... they are gonig to do something before it's too late ;)
  3. black-shoulder black-shoulder 393 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 50% ] Never
    (more)
    Never say never, I guess... but when a historic lake like this is on the verge of completely disappearing, I think there will be a more focused effort to prevent it from vanishing completely (not that the damages done will not continue).
  4. rubian rubian 393 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 64% ] Disappear in 2050 - 2100
    (more)
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