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Will Firefox be the most common browser by end of June 2009?
Tony ( Score Rank: User did not make predictions in the last 30 days ) Tony  |  closed on 01-Jul-2009 (156 days ago)
As of June 2007, Firefox is still the No. 2 browser (34%) in terms of market share, trailing just behind Internet Explorer (58.5%). In the past two years, Firefox has been increasing its market share in a rate of 1.5% monthly. If Firefox can continue with this growth, it can be the leading browser by mid 2009. Let's predict the chance of this happening?
ZiiValue
(chance)
Answer
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41%
Not enough information to determine the result.
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Comments (23)
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  1. Wallace Wallace 505 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ 17% ] Firefox be #1 by end of Jun 09
    Even though I like FF a lot, I don't think it will happen. IE still has too many installations in older machines.

    It will take a few more years for this to happen if it is to happen.
    [ reply ]
  2. boori boori 589 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ 30% ] Firefox be #1 by end of Jun 09
    maybe in heaven ;-) i like ff but taking the market is another thingi, unless google will take a part in its distribution ...(already funding the project...)
    [ reply ]
  3. ancienthart ancienthart 602 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ 40% ] Firefox be #1 by end of Jun 09
    No. Expect a slowdown as other alternative browsers hit the scene. Popularity will still rise, but more slowly. Maybe by the end of 2009, middle of 2010.
    [ reply ]
  4. black-shoulder black-shoulder 642 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ 80% ] Firefox be #1 by end of Jun 09
    I thought Firefox is already very close in being the most popular browser... Of course, IE comes with the Windows operation system, but most people's first use of a brand new computer's IE is to use it to go to the Firefox website to download Firefox... I don't see how Firefox would not win.
    [ reply ]
  5. humme humme 694 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ 2% ] Firefox be #1 by end of Jun 09
    No freaking way. FF is great, but Microsoft already monopolize the OS market and we have all seen how well its bundling strategy works. FF will still be #2 by 2009.
    [ reply ]
  6. jj22 jj22 702 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ 11% ] Firefox be #1 by end of Jun 09
    tats a long projection. I like FF but too bad MS has a good head start. eventually itll b close but unlikely to be ahead.
    [ reply ]
  7. kbolgarov kbolgarov 752 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ 35% ] Firefox be #1 by end of Jun 09
    I love FF but for sure they are not going to be #1, alas
    [ reply ]
  8. will101 will101 757 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ 20% ] Firefox be #1 by end of Jun 09
    If all IE does is copying FF, then its market share will eventually be eaten up by FF. But still, I think it Firefox won't lead the market by end of 2009. That's too early.
    [ reply ]
  9. SteamShowers SteamShowers 783 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Microsoft will be able to fairly easily copy and innovations that Firefox comes up with, and since IE comes bundled with Windows, there just won't be enough incentive for people to make the switch.
    [ reply ]
  10. kohd kohd 785 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    As already mentioned; the fact IE comes bundled with Windows is the killer one.

    I go for a 10% chance FF will become number 1. Not much of a chance because lets face it, for that to happen Windows needs to be toppled as the number 1 OS.
    [ reply ]
  11. Arthur Arthur 788 days ago
    [ show comment ] - 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
  12. Arthur Arthur 844 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    As long as IE / Windows is the most popular OS, the most paranoid stack holder is Google. The entire business of Google is based on IE and FF. Think about the harmfulness of few % of IE suddenly cannot load advanced Google's web controls. I believe Google will do its best to improve FF (one of its most important strategy). For sure, FF's market share will be enlarged as long as MS is not doing good in web business.
    [ reply ]
    1. Arthur Arthur 844 days ago
      + 2 votes This is Good This is Bad
      Market Share as of July 2007 (http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/bro...):
      IE7: 20.1%
      IE6: 36.9%
      IE5: 1.5%
      FF: 34.5%
       
    2. Arthur Arthur 844 days ago
      [ show comment ] - 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    3. Tony Tony 841 days ago
      + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
      I truly believe FF3 will be a charm. But still, if FF is to out-grow IE by June 2009, it has to keep a steady 1.5% monthly increase in market share. This is really tough. There is still hope though. If Linux manages to increase its market share in next year, then there will be hope for FF. Don't forget lots of Linux packages are bundled with FF. MS is not the only people who knows how to use bundling.
       
  13. Tony Tony 844 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    For those of you interested in FF3, here is the wish list Mozilla Corp. is keeping. Quite interesting indeed:
    http://wiki.mozilla.org/Firefox/Featu...
    [ reply ]
  14. Guru Guru 848 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    MS is so good in its bundling strategy, it is hardly possible that an open source project will become #1 in this highly competitive market.
    [ reply ]
  15. Tony Tony 849 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Do you think the launch of Vista will have any impact on the IE market share? IMO, I don't think IE can still maintain its market share without new innovation. Firefox, with its great add-on architecture, definitely has its advantage over IE. Look at this collection of firefox addon, it's huge:
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firef...
    [ reply ]
    1. Milo Milo 849 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      By remember, IE still installed with Window OS, its market share can not loss so much. A lot of company and home user do not allow or want to install new apps in their OS. As long as IE stick with the OS, its market shares won't loss so much....
       
    2. Tony Tony 848 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      I guess you got a point. But don't forget, some other big IT company like Google and IBM have great support for the firefox browser.
       
  16. Tony Tony 849 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    For the latest browser statistics, please check out:
    http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/bro...
    [ reply ]
    1. Milo Milo 849 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      Great resource. But I don't think so. FireFox will be one of popular browser by that time.
       
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