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Will China force Yahoo to sell its stake in Alibaba due to the Micrsoft buy out?
humme ( Score Rank: User did not make predictions in the last 30 days ) humme  |  was scored on 08-May-2008 (561 days ago)
http://blogs.zdnet.com/BT...
One of Yahoo's best arguments for getting Microsoft to raise its offer to acquire the company - the portal's stake in Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba - is in jeopardy courtesy of antitrust regulations in China. The New York Times reported Friday that a Chinese monopoly law that goes into effect in August could likely throw a roadblock in front of Microsoft's bid for Yahoo.

There is a possible that China will force Yahoo to sell back its stake in Alibaba due to the new anti-monopoly law. What is the chance of this happening before the end of April, 2008?
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2008-05-08
 
Alibaba.com, China’s biggest business-to-busines... (more)
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2008-05-07
 
Alibaba.com, China’s biggest business-to-busines... (more)
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2008-05-06
 
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Alibaba.com Ltd. , owner of C... (more)
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2008-05-04
 
After the recent rally in Asian markets, it appear... (more)
Comments (8)
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  1. humme humme 562 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    answered: [ * ] Yes, MS won't get Alibaba
    (more)
    Obvious, Microsoft didn't get Alibaba. This is the closest answer.
    [ reply ]
  2. Arthur Arthur 569 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    nothing happen about the deal yet.
    [ reply ]
  3. crown crown 600 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 50% ] Yes, MS won't get Alibaba
    (more)
    If Alibaba is not in the equation, MS should need to lower its bid from $31 to $29. But then will Yahoo accept a cheaper "wedding deal"?

    according to http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=8320
    [ reply ]
  4. cm2007 cm2007 600 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 67% ] Yes, MS won't get Alibaba
    (more)
    Alibaba captures the second largest Internet market in the world, over 103 million Chinese. A report from Beijing-based Analysis International estimated that China's e-commerce market will reach 620 billion RMB (76.5 billion US dollars) in 2005.

    On 08/11/2005, Alibaba and Yahoo merged. Alibaba obtained 1 billion US dollars of investment from Yahoo as well the exclusive right of using the Yahoo brand. In return, Yahoo will take 40% of Alibaba's shares but have 35% of voting rights in the company. Although Alibaba has Yahoo as its biggest shareholder, the firm is run locally by founder Jack Ma, who maintains effective control over the business, although Jerry Yang sits on the board.

    MS is the biggest software giant in US and the world. Many years ago, Chinese gov. strategically developed its own operating system to avoid MS Windows which was believed affect the country security. So do you think China would welcome MS to completely capture its B2B market?
    [ reply ]
  5. Snowman Snowman 600 days ago
    + 3 votes This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 91% ] Yes, MS won't get Alibaba
    (more)
    My logic is: (1)MS won't get Yahoo, so MS won't get Alibaba. (2)If MS gets Yahoo, Alibaba will ask Yahoo to sell its stack to a 3rd party, then MS would acquire a less 'valuable' Yahoo and thus re-consider the bid. Yahoo would feel under-value again.

    Either case, MS is unable to get Alibaba.
    [ reply ]
    1. Homer Homer 600 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      Yes, I almost forgot, we have to take into the chance of Microsoft buying out Yahoo in the first place. And that chance is quite low now.
       
  6. MasterMind MasterMind 603 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 60% ] No, MS can keep Alibaba
    (more)
    If Yahoo are willing to cooperate with Microsoft, I am sure they can come up with a good plan to keep Alibaba.
    [ reply ]
  7. humme humme 603 days ago
    + 2 votes This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 80% ] Yes, MS won't get Alibaba
    (more)
    I think China will block the deal. Simply because China wants to keep major stake in Alibaba.
    [ reply ]
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