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Which (if any) party leader would resign after the Canadian federal election?
black-shoulder ( Score Rank: User did not make predictions in the last 30 days ) black-shoulder  |  was scored on 21-Oct-2008 (515 days ago)
With an election often comes the resignation of a party leader who fails to meet the pre-election expectations (be that winning the election, or winning a certain number of seats). The 2008 election is not without its drama, and with five parties seriously giving and taking shots from one another, and so many ridings that are too close to call, a surprising election result may just happen that would cause some heads to fall (figuratively speaking, of course).

Which of the following party leaders do you expect to resign immediately (within a week) following the Oct 14 election?
Community Prediction in Chance
Community Accuracy:  53%
Top Predictor:   Homer (85% Accuracy)
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55%
This outcome did NOT happen.
0%
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35%
This outcome happened!
3%
This outcome did NOT happen.
3%
This outcome did NOT happen.
2%
This outcome did NOT happen.
2%
This outcome did NOT happen.
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2008-10-21
A
Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion has paid the pr... (more)
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2008-10-16
B
Vsthumb
Canada's newly re-elected Prime Minister Stephen H... (more)
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2008-10-12
C
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(Reuters) - Bay Street, riveted by the sight of pl... (more)
Comments (5)
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  1. black-shoulder black-shoulder 515 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    scored this topic
    Dion resigned.
  2. black-shoulder black-shoulder 515 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    answered: [ * ] Stephane Dion, Liberals
    (more)
    Dion has resigned, though it will only become effective in May when the Liberals have their leadership convention.
  3. black-shoulder black-shoulder 516 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 100% ] Stephane Dion, Liberals
    (more)
    Dion has just announced that he will step down as Liberal leader. He will stay as the leader until the next leadership convention to assist the transition process.
  4. black-shoulder black-shoulder 518 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 85% ] Stephane Dion, Liberals
    (more)
    Dion is calling for a press conference on Monday. It is expected the party has convinced him to step down.
  5. Arthur Arthur 523 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 100% ] No leader will resign
    (more)
    none will resign.
  6. black-shoulder black-shoulder 524 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 55% ] Stephane Dion, Liberals
    (more)
    I think only a leader who is expected to "win" (be that the actual election, or gain a certain number of seats) but fail to live up to that expectation would face serious pressure to resign. That eliminates all the leaders except Harper and Dion. I personally feel Harper can still win a majority (though it will be a very slim one, if even that), so the pressure is on Dion.

    Many Liberals did not like Dion to begin with, and his leadership was questionable during the last Harper mandate, so if the Liberals cannot win (which I don't think they will), or worse yet, lose to the Conservatives in Quebec, there will be immense pressure for Dion to step down.
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