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Which country will win the most gold medals at the Beijing Olympics?
black-shoulder ( Score Rank: User did not make predictions in the last 30 days ) black-shoulder  |  was scored on 25-Aug-2008 (453 days ago)
The Beijing Olympics is less than 2 months away, and while some athletes are still trying to qualify for a berth to participate, others are doing what they can to ensure they will have the best finish. Countries are pouring in tonnes of resources in hope that athletes would achieve national glory by winning a gold medal.

While the Olympics do not lack feel-good stories of athletes overcoming adversity to make it to the games (e.g. the Jamaican bobsled team at the Calgary Winter Olympics), the super powers have traditionally dominated the podium. At the Athens Olympics of 2004, for example, the top-five gold medal nations are: USA, China, Russia, Australia, and Japan.

Which country will win the most number of gold medals this year?
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2008-08-25
 
LOS ANGELES/BEIJING (Hollywood Reporter) - NBC Uni... (more)
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2008-08-24
 
BEIJING (Reuters) - Following is a selection of th... (more)
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2008-08-24
 
Rogge says Olympics opened China to world but IOC ... (more)
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2008-08-23
 
BEIJING (Reuters) - China wrap up a spectacular Ol... (more)
Comments (15)
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  1. olympian olympian 453 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    answered: [ * ] China
    (more)
    It is the first time that China suppressed all countries in the gold medal count. By that point China's lead in the gold medal count was unassailable, and its barely hidden agenda of topping the United States for the first time handily achieved. The final tally: China 51; U.S. 36.

    In the overall medal count, though, the order was reversed: U.S. 110; China 100. Both nations could claim to be No. 1 in a contest in which there was more at stake than just bragging rights over which country's athletic prowess is faster, stronger, higher.

    An interesting article talks about "Gold Medal Economics" - few economists would have been surprised that China is gaining ground on the gold medal tally. While it is difficult to predict the outcome of individual events, the overall number of medals a country will win can be closely forecast: http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/0...
  2. will101 will101 460 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Hold on for a sec. The games are not over yet. How come the topic is already closed?!
  3. Nolsemya Nolsemya 460 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    answered: [ * ] China
    (more)
    it's obvios
  4. black-shoulder black-shoulder 461 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    So far, the Chinese athletes have thrived under the pressure and the cheering of the home crowds. US has a distinct advantage in the later stages of the games, particularly in track and field, and may still well catch up to China, but China still has some golds to get in diving, badminton, table tennis, etc... I think China's lead may just stay.
  5. humme humme 468 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 100% ] China
    (more)
    It can possibly be China.
  6. ancienthart ancienthart 468 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 60% ] China
    (more)
    Close to even split for USA and China, with a home-field and population advantage going towards China. (The more people you have, the more top athletes you get.)
  7. Wallace Wallace 487 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 49% ] China
    (more)
    China has a good chance this year. But I say US's chance is just as good.
  8. estimator estimator 520 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 57% ] U.S.A.
    (more)
    Traditionally, it is USA and Russia. I don't expect it is any different this year.
  9. goog goog 521 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 48% ] China
    (more)
    After seeing black-shoulder's stat, I think China stands a pretty good chance. The host country always get more gold medal than usual.
    1. black-shoulder black-shoulder 520 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      Goog,

      I would agree with you that China is actually close in matching the US in the gold medal count. Here's another thing to consider though:

      In the 04 Olympics, China trailed USA by 4 gold medals, but trailed the US in silver and bronze medals by 36. The way I look at it is: USA is pretty strong in many events, so even if they don't win, they are close. China, on the other hand, are not nearly as versatile. Can China still beat USA in sheer number of golds? Absolutely. But if its athletes fold under pressure, they have no athletes to step up to turn a silver or bronze into gold.
       
    2. freeman freeman 520 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      I wonder where do the Chinese athletes got trained. If their training takes place in the same venue as the competition, then they definitely have an advantage over foreign athletes. If I still remember my psychology lesson in college, people tend to perform better if they perform a task in a familiar setting.
       
  10. black-shoulder black-shoulder 523 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    Just want to show the 2004 medal counts to help other Ziibos in making their predictions:
    1 USA: 36G 39S 27B Tot: 102
    2 China: 32G 17S 14B Tot: 63
    3 Russia: 27G 27S 38B Tot: 92
    4 Australia: 17G 16S 16B Tot: 49
    5 Japan: 16G 9S 12B Tot: 37
    6 Germany 13G 16S 20B Tot: 49
  11. freeman freeman 526 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 42% ] China
    (more)
    black-shoulder's mentioning about the effect of pollution is interesting. In that case, maybe Chinese athletes have a edge because they are used to the local climate and pollution? I think Chinese athletes will train super hard in the coming months.
  12. black-shoulder black-shoulder 529 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 60% ] U.S.A.
    (more)
    Two major factors at this year's games:

    1) Would China thrive or crash under the tremendous pressure it faces playing and competing in front of their fans? Some athletes will rise to the occasion, but we have also seen some fold.

    2) Would the pollution cause certain athletes' performance to suffer? Some of them, like that marathon athlete (don't remember the name) is even opting out because of the pollution.
  13. MasterMind MasterMind 529 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 35% ] U.S.A.
    (more)
    Traditionally, it was USA right? I think this year, it will remain the same, but China will be No.2. You know how the hosting country usually try harder to win medals.
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