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Suggested Predictions
Ziibos (23)
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The Beijing Olympics is less than 2 months away, and while some athletes are still trying to qualify for a berth to participate, others are doing what they can to ensure they will have the best finish. Countries are pouring in tonnes of resources in hope that athletes would achieve national glory by winning a gold medal.
While the Olympics do not lack feel-good stories of athletes overcoming adversity to make it to the games (e.g. the Jamaican bobsled team at the Calgary Winter Olympics), the super powers have traditionally dominated the podium. At the Athens Olympics of 2004, for example, the top-five gold medal nations are: USA, China, Russia, Australia, and Japan. Which country will win the most number of gold medals this year?
Comments (15)
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In the overall medal count, though, the order was reversed: U.S. 110; China 100. Both nations could claim to be No. 1 in a contest in which there was more at stake than just bragging rights over which country's athletic prowess is faster, stronger, higher.
An interesting article talks about "Gold Medal Economics" - few economists would have been surprised that China is gaining ground on the gold medal tally. While it is difficult to predict the outcome of individual events, the overall number of medals a country will win can be closely forecast: http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/0...
I would agree with you that China is actually close in matching the US in the gold medal count. Here's another thing to consider though:
In the 04 Olympics, China trailed USA by 4 gold medals, but trailed the US in silver and bronze medals by 36. The way I look at it is: USA is pretty strong in many events, so even if they don't win, they are close. China, on the other hand, are not nearly as versatile. Can China still beat USA in sheer number of golds? Absolutely. But if its athletes fold under pressure, they have no athletes to step up to turn a silver or bronze into gold.
1 USA: 36G 39S 27B Tot: 102
2 China: 32G 17S 14B Tot: 63
3 Russia: 27G 27S 38B Tot: 92
4 Australia: 17G 16S 16B Tot: 49
5 Japan: 16G 9S 12B Tot: 37
6 Germany 13G 16S 20B Tot: 49
1) Would China thrive or crash under the tremendous pressure it faces playing and competing in front of their fans? Some athletes will rise to the occasion, but we have also seen some fold.
2) Would the pollution cause certain athletes' performance to suffer? Some of them, like that marathon athlete (don't remember the name) is even opting out because of the pollution.