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Which country will be the next to own nuclear weapon?
Arthur ( Score Rank: User did not make predictions in the last 30 days ) Arthur  |  closed on 25-May-2008 (545 days ago)
There were about 20,000 active nuclear weapons in the world in 2002. Many of the "decommissioned" weapons were simply stored or partially dismantled, not destroyed. As of 2007, the total number was expected to continue to decline by 30%-50% over the next decade.

The U.S. Air Force mistakenly shipped fuses that are used in nuclear weapons to Taiwan in 2006, believing the crates contained helicopter batteries, officials at the Pentagon announced this morning. That reminds us that nuclear weapons are still wanted by many countries. Which of the following countries will claim that they own nuclear weapon?

Current the nations with nuclear warheads are: US, Russia, China, UK, France, India, Pakistan, and Israel.
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Comments (13)
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  1. Tempus Tempus 546 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 65% ] North Korea
    (more)
    "Claim" is the keyword here. Doesn't North Korea already satisfy that condition? I thought so.
  2. boori boori 578 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 54% ] South Korea
    (more)
    also iran
  3. ancienthart ancienthart 589 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 44% ] Taiwan
    (more)
    The countries closest to China are the ones that should be feeling nervous. Having a few nuclear missiles (either real or "we have them, honest, wink-wink") to point back at China could act as a short-term deterrent. However if China does decide to go imperialistic, having one of these countries lob a H-bomb back at China would serve as a good excuse for an invasion.
  4. goog goog 603 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    What about our Northern neighbor Canada?
  5. goog goog 603 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 74% ] Others (please specify)
    (more)
    I kind of agree with oWell. It can be one of the South American countries, but not necessarily Brazil.
  6. oWell oWell 605 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 89% ] Others (please specify)
    (more)
    Brazil
  7. black-shoulder black-shoulder 605 days ago
    + 2 votes This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 65% ] Others (please specify)
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    Japan, legally, is not allowed to carry or own weapons of aggression, so I don't think they can "own" nuclear weapons. Taiwan has no financial resources to build nuclear weapons, and have no need to do so (can never compete with China through weaponry). South Korea is backed by the US and does not want to cause North Korea to try again at its efforts to build nuclear weapons... so those countries are out.

    North Korea is still a little iffy, but I think the most likely country would be an islamic nation in the middle east.
    1. oWell oWell 605 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      You made a very detailed analysis. The options above should at least include Iran and some African countries ... perhaps Brazil wants to enter the nuclear family too.
       
  8. rubian rubian 605 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 70% ] Others (please specify)
    (more)
    a very rich middle-east country such as Saudi and UAE.
  9. oilman oilman 605 days ago
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    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 100% ] Others (please specify)
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    N.Korea doesn't have the money. And Taiwan probably will slow down any effort to own nuclear weapons under the new presidency. Japan... not sure. But probably such a country will be in the one of the oil kingdoms.
  10. Guru Guru 605 days ago
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    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 79% ] Others (please specify)
    (more)
    Strategically, I think Middle East countries as a whole would want to increase its military power. Yes, Iran would be on the top of the list.
  11. bafamed bafamed 605 days ago
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    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 100% ] Others (please specify)
    (more)
    IRAN, South Korea,
  12. miniMe miniMe 605 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 56% ] Others (please specify)
    (more)
    perhaps some African countries? such as Sudan?
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