When will HKSAR's CEO Donald Tsang step down from his post?

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Hong Kong's chief executive officer Donald Tsang has been under a lot of fire recently. The appointment of people with close ties to him to rich positions caused a great deal of public unrest. Meanwhile, the decision to donate 10 billion to the Sichuan relief while the closest province/territory has only donated 5 billion (Macau) has also raised the concern that he is using public money to win favours from the leaders at Beijing.

Two more important developments have occurred recently: his public support, according to a poll done by Hong Kong University, has dropped below 50% for the first time since he became CEO. More importantly, vice premier Xi has publicly told him to communicate more and to look after the security issues at the HK leg of the Olympics. Many viewed that as a public reprimand.

Do you think Donald Tsang will step down? If so, when?

Prediction Guideline

• Your score is calculated at the end of the closing day by: (outcome accuracy x time weight).
• Time weight represents how much time you hold your prediction. So the early you predict, the higher your score if you get it right.
• If you update your prediction, we will score all your update(s) based on their time weight.

STEP 1:  My Prediction

	ZiiValue (chance)	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	()	Possible Outcomes
	8%			Yes, before the Olympics
	13%			Yes, after the Olympics
	5%			Yes, after Sept's election
	74%			No, he will stay thru his term

STEP 2:  Comment

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