Voter Demographics: % of Black Voters for McCain?

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  ziibos

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American voters remain divided by race before a presidential election that will have the first black nominee from a major party on the ballot, a new poll showed on July 13. More than 80% of black voters said they had a favorable opinion of the Obama while 31% of whites said they had a favorable opinion of him. Also Obama leads McCain among Hispanics by 62%. He is viewed favorably by more than half of Hispanics, while McCain's rating is below 25%.

What percentage of BLACK votes will McCain receive?

We will use the CNN exit poll to judge the result. The exit poll of 2004 election is found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/w...

FYI - US dempgraphic of race/ethnicity (2006) (quote: http://en.wikipedia.org/w...)
White 80.1%
African American 12.8%
Asian 4.4%
Native American and Alaskan Native 1.0%
Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 0.2%
Multiracial 1.6%
Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 14.8

Prediction Guideline

• Your score is calculated at the end of the closing day by: (outcome accuracy x time weight).
• Time weight represents how much time you hold your prediction. So the early you predict, the higher your score if you get it right.
• If you update your prediction, we will score all your update(s) based on their time weight.

STEP 1:  My Prediction

	ZiiValue (chance)	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	()	Possible Outcomes
	4%			> 50%
	6%			30% - 50%
	29%			10% - 30%
	62%			< 10%

STEP 2:  Comment

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