Vista damage to Windows market share

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There can be no doubt that Vista is a trainwreck. But opinions vary a great deal about whether or not is has damaged the brand "Windows" and the market share of Windows in the OS market.

Some people say that users are leaving in droves, and the market share of OS X has been rising strongly during the past two years.
Other people claim that users and especially corporations are simply sticking with XP, and the rising share of Apple users is due to good offers by Apple and compatability with other interesting Apple products (iPod, iPhone) as well as taking a bite more out of the Linux than the Windows market.


What do you think? How many percentage points of market share will Windows have lost due to Vista when the smoke has cleared and all is said and done?

Since we can measure market share and loss of it, but not reliably measure the reasons, this is a casual prediction.

Windows market share is currently ~90%, with a ~1.5% loss during 2008. Vista's share of that is ~15%.

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STEP 1: My Answer

	ZiiValue (chance)	MyAnswer (which outcome happened?)	Possible Outcomes
	23%	No noticeable loss	No noticeable loss
	50%	1% to 3%	1% to 3%
	10%	3% to 6%	3% to 6%
	15%	6% to 10%	6% to 10%
	2%	more than 10%	more than 10%

STEP 2: Comment (Required)

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