The Social Prediction Community
Tags: olympics equestrian hong kong
Bookmark and Share
Ziibos (10)
ancienthart (32)
KKasapis (12)
cheetah (126)
cougar222 (15)
DMMc (7)
x9yyz (47)
goog (6)
black-shoulder (3)
more...
▼ advertisement
Challenge Your Friends
What is ZiiTrend?
Terrorist attack in the equestrian event in the HK-leg Olympics?
black-shoulder ( Score Rank: #3 based on predictions in the last 30 days ) black-shoulder  |  was scored on 26-Aug-2008 (12 days ago)
The immigration department in Hong Kong, in a very unusual move, announces that there are reports of a possible terrorist attack targeted towards the equestrian event in the Hong Kong portion of the Olympics. The officer goes on to say that, as a result, the immigration department may have to block some people from coming in.

The police department then came out to say that they have received no such reports.

Critics are quick to question the unusualness of the announcement, saying that the immigration department may be creating a sense of fear to allow them to prevent some people who are "unwelcoming" to come to Hong Kong.

With this in mind, do you think there will be a terrorist attack? The event goes from Aug 9 - 21, so I'm ending the prediction just prior to the event, but the prediction covers for any attack that breaks out during the course of the event.
Community Prediction in Chance
Community Accuracy:  73%
Top Predictor:   DMMc (100% Accuracy)
ZiiValue
(chance)
Answer
Possible Outcomes
11%
This outcome did NOT happen.
25%
This outcome did NOT happen.
64%
This outcome happened!
Predictions
Hide ▲
  • Zoom:
  • Current
  • 7d
  • 1m
  • 3m
  • 6m
  • 1y
  • 2y
News & Video
Add News / Video 1 - 4 of 27 news / videos
0 vote This is Good This is Bad
2008-08-26
 
Watch out Usain Bolt and Michael Phelps. A menager... (more)
0 vote This is Good This is Bad
2008-08-22
 
Vsthumb
A typhoon that killed four people in the Philippin... (more)
0 vote This is Good This is Bad
2008-08-20
 
Pretty shipping heiress Athina Onassis de Miranda ... (more)
0 vote This is Good This is Bad
2008-08-14
 
Hong Kong dispatched explosive experts twice Thurs... (more)
Comments (7)
Add Comment
  1. black-shoulder black-shoulder 12 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    answered: [ * ] No, just a political gesture
    (more)
    Thankfully, no attacks occurred, just a couple of protests that pretty well were busted before they even started.
  2. Homer Homer 13 days ago
    [ show comment ] - 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
  3. ancienthart ancienthart 55 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 70% ] No, just a political gesture
    (more)
    While I thought a terrorist attack was unlikely on the Olympic Torch, I'm starting to think that China's attitude to foreign travellers, media and interests could just spark an attempt anycase.
  4. x9yyz x9yyz 83 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 64% ] No, just a political gesture
    (more)
    no way ....
  5. goog goog 83 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    black-shoulder, who do you think is on the "unwelcome" list?
    1. black-shoulder black-shoulder 82 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      Goog: If you look at the recent news, Christina Chan, the student who is an advocate for Tibet, was banned from going to Macau in transit to travel to Australia. Here's a student who has a valid passport, and yet gets denied of entering Macau, only because she protested during the Olympics relay to support for Tibet rights.

      The Hong Kong government is pretty well the same... anyone who she feels is not head-over-heels in support of the communist government is considered an enemy. So human rights supporters, Tibet supporters, etc., all would not be welcomed.
       
  6. black-shoulder black-shoulder 83 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 98% ] No, just a political gesture
    (more)
    Two things make me feel almost for sure that the "report" is but a political gesture and an excuse to prevent certain "unwanted" people to come:

    1. The report was given by the immigration department instead of the police or others that are involved with security.

    2. The immigration officer specifically that they may have to disallow certain people to enter, pretty well indicating the reason why he is the one making such claims.

    Not a lot of political savvy here... In fact, I think it's pretty foolish.
Add a Comment
Join us to comment on this prediction.
OR
Sign in if you are already an existing member.