Obama will be 10 points ahead in the Gallup Poll by Aug 22, 2008

• 46%
  accuracy

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Gallup puts out a Daily Tracking Poll on the Obama vs McCain presidential sweepstakes, as seen at http://www.gallup.com. Since the Daily Gallup Poll started in early July, Obama has not held more than a 7 percentage point lead. Predict that Obama will increase his lead in the Gallup Poll in August before the Democratic Convention. I think he will be at least 10 points ahead on Aug. 22, just before the Democratic Convention starts.

Community Prediction in Chance

Community Accuracy:  46%

Top Predictor:   beathead (100% Accuracy)

(show accuracy distribution▼)

Rank Accuracy A >= 90% B >= 80% C >= 70% D >= 60% E >= 40% F < 40%

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	ZiiValue (chance)	Answer	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	Possible Outcomes
	44%			Yes
	56%			No

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