Michigan: will Obama or McCain lead in the battleground state?

• 15
  ziibos

(hide summary▲)

The Great Lakes State has been a fairly safe bet for the Democrats in recent decades, giving its substantial electoral votes to Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and John Kerry. However, with each election, the margin of victory has narrowed, opening a window for the Republicans. Populism and a historically strong labor movement have dominated the state and given Democrats an advantage, but Republicans have gained ground in advancing tax cuts and other social issues appealing to "Reagan Democrats". A population exodus from Democratic Detroit has made the conservative Republican west more influential. Current polls show Michigan with a slight Obama lead (as of July 16, 2008)

There are 17 electoral votes from Michigan. Which candidate will receive the most votes in Michigan?

Check the latest polls / results on CNN electoral college map: http://www.cnn.com/2008/P...

Prediction Guideline

• Your score is calculated at the end of the closing day by: (outcome accuracy x time weight).
• Time weight represents how much time you hold your prediction. So the early you predict, the higher your score if you get it right.
• If you update your prediction, we will score all your update(s) based on their time weight.

STEP 1:  My Prediction

	ZiiValue (chance)	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	()	Possible Outcomes
	59%			Barack Obama (Democratic)
	41%			John McCain (Republican)

STEP 2:  Comment

Submit Prediction Cancel