Market Crash is Coming

It's difficult to define "crash" but the Fed will probably keep this system float as long as possible. Perhaps a Q4 calamity in leveraged finance defaults will do the trick.

I think the American economy and dependent economies will face a protracted slowdown over the next couple of years, but I doubt things will go south in 2008 itself. This I see as the best possible case - there's a lot wrong with the US economy at the moment, and the world economy in general. However, it could get worse if someone or several "someones" panic or do something majorly stupid.
What I will predict is that if the US market suddenly seems to soar in 2009-2012, then that will be a false bubble and we will get a massive crash soon after.

Market Crash---Very Unlikely, Consider the real facts. 300,000,000 people in America.
One out of every 125 is a millionaire.that equals 2,400,000 miiiionaires. Now thte Math....
2,400,000 times an average (estimate/ guestimate) of a average worth of 5,000,000 equals
12,000,000,000,000 or 12 trillion dollars. The remaining 297.6 Miillion at an average of 50,000 equals 14.8 trillion, that's 26.8 Trillion dollars. Then add all the Corporations value, lets say another 35 Trillion or at least a total of 60 Trillion Dollars. The rest of the economies of the world cannot let America go belly up, because they would also fold up. A deep recession, Yes it is more than on the horizon, but the market keeps getting bolstered by media hype, and pumping by the fed, but a 1929 crash all over again, very, very unlikely. Expect a substancial market correction to drop the DOW back down to the 7-8000 range. possibly by the 4th quarter, of 08 or 1st quarter of 09.. Run away inflation, steep price increases, gouging by every greedy co., & individual net worth plummeting, while the rich pile up the riches even more. More Homeless, more Hungry....

The market is still a bubble, whether it is a hiss or a burst... It's hard to tell.

Wow, what a depressing subject. Fed cannot just keep cutting rate to save the market. Maybe a crash can happens right after the Fed announces the rate change or lack of it. Who knows?

Maybe it is time to move my $$$ to Asia or S.America. It is so horrible to read this kind of market crash every time, because it can come true any time.

Based on my observation on Dow Jones index, the market has not been adjusted to reflect the recent inflation. Take a look here: http://finance.google.com/finance?chd...;

The burst of tech bubble + 911 caused a deep drop at the end of 2001, and then, after a little revival, a deeper drop at the end of 2002. The adjustment was over -30%. The recent slump of Dow Jones was about -15% (from the highest point in 2007 to march 2008). This time the recession was triggered by more fundamental problems: high debt / poor credit ratings, housing bubble, and high inflation etc. The source is far more serious than the problems in 2001.

The market is expected to have a BIG adjustment. If it remains BULL now, there should be a bigger BEAR later - just as what we could observed in 2001 and 2002.

I guess we first have to define what constitutes to a "market crash." The current bear market involves an "adjustment" of over 20% already, if I am not mistaken... If you are talking about a single day crash where Dow Jones dropped by 2000 pts, then I don't think that will be likely.

However, after the presidential election, a major adjustment is expected. The Republicans are doing everything they can to hold on until the election - George W. Bush does not want to be the second President Bush to go down amidst an economic recession.

I can see a perfect storm coming. Let's hear your analysis on this.