The Social Prediction Community
Tags: iran satellite
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Ziibos (12)
neaera (68)
jbacon63 (9)
einstin2 (90)
strygwyrm (*)
DMMc (6)
Zii1 (*)
preble (*)
freeman (58)
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Iran: time to launch a satellite
Find out what outcome each Ziibo predicted.

Outcome: in 2008

2 Ziibos think this outcome is the most likely:
Predicted: 58% chance
Predicted: 81% chance

Outcome: in first half of 2009

1 Ziibos think this outcome is the most likely:
Predicted: 71% chance

Outcome: in second half of 2009

6 Ziibos think this outcome is the most likely:
Predicted: 63% chance
Predicted: 78% chance
Predicted: 43% chance
Predicted: 55% chance
Predicted: 63% chance
Predicted: 100% chance

Outcome: after 2009 or never

3 Ziibos think this outcome is the most likely:
Predicted: 54% chance
Zii1 (155)
Predicted: 48% chance
Predicted: 100% chance