Iran: time to launch a satellite

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Iran's attempt to launch a dummy satellite into orbit was a "dramatic failure" that fell far short of the country's assertions of success, a U.S. official said on Aug 19, 2008. Iran, embroiled in a standoff with the West over its nuclear ambitions, said on Sunday it has put a dummy satellite into orbit on a home-grown rocket for the first time, using a technology that could also be used for launching weapons. Iran says it has no nuclear-weapons plans and that it seeks nuclear technology to generate electricity.

"The failed launch shows that the purported Iranian space program is in its nascent stages at best - they have a long way to go," the U.S. official said.

When may Iran announce a successful launch of a satellite?

Prediction Guideline

• Your score is calculated at the end of the closing day by: (outcome accuracy x time weight).
• Time weight represents how much time you hold your prediction. So the early you predict, the higher your score if you get it right.
• If you update your prediction, we will score all your update(s) based on their time weight.

STEP 1:  My Prediction

	ZiiValue (chance)	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	()	Possible Outcomes
	15%			in 2008
	19%			in first half of 2009
	40%			in second half of 2009
	25%			after 2009 or never

STEP 2:  Comment

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