How would Nintendo Wii and Sony PS3 sales in Japan compare by the end of 08?

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According to PC Magazine, in a five-week period ending June 29, sales of Sony's Playstation 3 console in Japan has made substantial strides towards catching up to Nintendo's Wii.

The article cited sources saying that Nintendo sold 235,990 Wii in a five week period ending June 29, versus PS3 sales of 139,494 and a dismal 10,964 for the Xbox 360. While Wii seems to be enjoying a substantial lead, the numbers have gone down from a lofty 6:1 sale advantage earlier in the year.

Some say the change is merely due to the release of the much anticipated PS3 game Metal Gear Solid 4, while others suggested that PS3 is slowly catching up.

How do you think the sale of these two consoles would compare by the end of the year in Japan? (as Japan seems to be the center of the gaming world)?

(The numbers represent the ratio between Wii sales and PS3 sales)

Prediction Guideline

• Your score is calculated at the end of the closing day by: (outcome accuracy x time weight).
• Time weight represents how much time you hold your prediction. So the early you predict, the higher your score if you get it right.
• If you update your prediction, we will score all your update(s) based on their time weight.

STEP 1:  My Prediction

	ZiiValue (chance)	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	()	Possible Outcomes
	52%			Wii 4.5 or more; PS3 1
	33%			Wii 4; PS3 1 (i.e. 3.5+:1)
	5%			Wii 3: PS3 1 (i.e. 2.5+:1)
	10%			Wii 2: PS3 1 (i.e. 1.5+:1)
	0%			Wii 1: PS3 1
	0%			PS3 beating Wii in sales

STEP 2:  Comment

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