How many tickets would be sold to the 2010 Olympic Games by Dec 2008?

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Vanoc, or the Vancouver Olympic Committee, has just announced its 2010 Olympics ticket schedule. 1.6 million tickets ranging from $25CAD to $775CAD would be opened to application to purchase on Oct 3. Ticket application is not on a first-come, first-serve basis. Once the applications are in, a random draw would determine how many tickets an applicant can buy, and at what event.

Ticket notifications would be sent out between Nov and Dec, where unsuccessful applicants can request for tickets from other events that are not sold out.

Vanoc is hoping that ticket sale would be much stronger than that seen at the recent Beijing Olympics.

How many of the 1.6 million tickets do you think will be sold be the end of December 2008?

Prediction Guideline

• Your score is calculated at the end of the closing day by: (outcome accuracy x time weight).
• Time weight represents how much time you hold your prediction. So the early you predict, the higher your score if you get it right.
• If you update your prediction, we will score all your update(s) based on their time weight.

STEP 1:  My Prediction

	ZiiValue (chance)	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	()	Possible Outcomes
	9%			All tickets sold out
	25%			75%+ tickets sold
	43%			50%+ tickets sold
	16%			25%+ tickets sold
	7%			less than 25% tickets sold

STEP 2:  Comment

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