How many seats would the pan-democratic parties win in HK's election?

• 58%
  accuracy

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Anson Chan, a former official from the Hong Kong government before and after 97, and the one who was voted into the legislative assembly last fall, has announced that she will not seek re-election on September 7. Chan expressed her wish for the "new generation" of pro-democratic politicians to seek office.

In the awkward political structure in Hong Kong, the legislative assembly is divided into two halves, with 30 seats being voted by all qualified citizens in the city, and the other 30 through special "functional groups" elections that are often criticized to be pro-government/China.

The various pro-democratic parties currently own 23 seats in the house of 60 (some would argue the number is 25 or 27, depending on your political point of view). Observers claim that the prospects of them holding on to the same number of seats is really bleak this year as economy has improved, and people are in the Olympic fever.

How many seats can pan-democratic parties win?

Community Prediction in Chance

Community Accuracy:  58%

Top Predictor:   black-shoulder (73% Accuracy)

(show accuracy distribution▼)

Rank Accuracy A >= 90% B >= 80% C >= 70% D >= 60% E >= 40% F < 40%

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	ZiiValue (chance)	Answer	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	Possible Outcomes
	25%			5 - 10 seats
	18%			11 - 15 seats
	21%			16 - 20 seats
	32%			21 - 25 seats
	3%			26 - 30 seats
	0%			over 30 seats

STEP 2:  Comment

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