How many seats would the Conservatives win in Canada's general election?

• 65%
  accuracy

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The Associated Press reports that Stephen Harper, prime minister and leader of the conservative party, is expected to call a general election in October this weekend. This would end the longest-serving minority government since the 1920s, a government that lasts over a year and a half.

Reports are suggesting that the Conservatives are gaining major grounds in the province of Quebec, a traditional battle ground between the Parti Quebecois and the Liberals. This greatly increases the chance of a Conservative majority, thus the election call.

The Conservatives currently hold 127 of the 308 seats in the parliament. If an October election is called, how many seats do you think they will win in the election (in order to win a majority government, a party has to win 155 or more seats)?

Community Prediction in Chance

Community Accuracy:  65%

Top Predictor:   Arthur (100% Accuracy)

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Rank Accuracy A >= 90% B >= 80% C >= 70% D >= 60% E >= 40% F < 40%

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	ZiiValue (chance)	Answer	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	Possible Outcomes
	1%			50 or fewer
	0%			51 - 75
	2%			76 - 100
	5%			101 - 125
	44%			126 - 150
	42%			151- 175
	3%			176 - 200
	2%			200 seats or more

STEP 2:  Comment

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