The Social Prediction Community
Tags: president election usa politics news
Bookmark and Share
Suggested Predictions
Ziibos (23)
mikegd (173)
jbacon63 (5)
gv63 (418)
prestontiger (121)
Jennx (93)
S0unds4il0r (220)
capemark (54)
triguy77 (46)
more...
▼ advertisement
Challenge Your Friends
What is ZiiTrend?
Verifiable Prediction
How many electoral votes will the presidential election be decided by?
einstin2 ( Score Rank: #15 based on predictions in the last 30 days ) einstin2  |  was scored on 05-Nov-2008 (30 days ago)
Under the current US constitution, the election of the president of the united states shall be decided by the majority of electors from each state. Typically these electors will vote down party lines and the election is decided in early November. However sometimes electors can swap sides or vote for third parties. Most of the time elections are decided with surpluses of electoral votes in excess of 50 but on occasion elections are decided by less then ten votes.

Taking this all in, can you predict how many electoral votes over the 'magic number' a candidate will win by?

(note, keep in mind that every state has as many electors as they have representitives.)
Community Prediction in Chance
Community Accuracy:  63%
Top Predictor:   poisontongue (100% Accuracy)
ZiiValue
(chance)
Answer
Possible Outcomes
38%
This outcome happened!
17%
This outcome did NOT happen.
14%
This outcome did NOT happen.
12%
This outcome did NOT happen.
8%
This outcome did NOT happen.
4%
This outcome did NOT happen.
3%
This outcome did NOT happen.
5%
This outcome did NOT happen.
Predictions
Hide ▲
  • Zoom:
  • Current
  • 7d
  • 1m
  • 3m
  • 6m
  • 1y
  • 2y
News & Video
Add News / Video 1 - 4 of 6 news / videos
0 vote This is Good This is Bad
2008-11-03
A
0 vote This is Good This is Bad
2008-11-03
A
Vsthumb
Front-runner Barack Obama and his comeback-seeking... (more)
0 vote This is Good This is Bad
2008-10-23
 
Under usual circumstances, the fact that CQ Politi... (more)
0 vote This is Good This is Bad
2008-10-15
C
Shows extensive information on electoral votes by ... (more)
Comments (8)
Add Comment
  1. voteSense voteSense 30 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    answered: [ * ] Obama > 50 votes
    (more)
    Obama got 338 electoral votes where McCain got 159 electoral votes. The difference is more than 50.
    [ reply ]
  2. einstin2 einstin2 38 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    I had to update my prediction because of the recent polling trends. I could never have predicted Obama's admission of socialism nor the peoples almost viseral reaction to it. McCain is still fighting up hill but if these comments continue we may see a huge upset.
    [ reply ]
  3. sdilbeck sdilbeck 52 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 28% ] McCain 10 - 20 votes
    (more)
    If the USA will wake from their sleep will see that we need the experience of a proven fighter and leader, during this crisis.
    [ reply ]
  4. black-shoulder black-shoulder 54 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 40% ] Obama > 50 votes
    (more)
    I beg to differ. Even though the current economic crisis has done a lot of damages to McCain, and Palin's less-than-spectacular performance since her nomination does not help, I have a feeling that Obama's ethnicity may still prevent him from becoming the president. Sadly but truly, there are still many Americans who would rather not have a woman nor a visible minority to become their "head dog." And this deep-rooted racism/sexism or whatever prejudice as you may call it, would not be reflected in a poll, but would certainly show up in the voting booth.

    I think Obama does have an edge due to the economic crisis, but I would not be at all surprised if McCain wins.
    [ reply ]
  5. poisontongue poisontongue 55 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    I really think Obama will win handily (at least compared to these past two elections). For one, people aren't going to go Republican again. This financial crisis was the icing on the cake (though one may argue that Clinton had a hand in it). And Palin is simply a monstrous liability. It's bad enough that she has less credentials than Obama and questionable views, but now she's openly tackling irrelevant issues such as Obama's (fleeting) connection to Ayers and allowing racist crowd comments at rallies get out of hand, and McCain actually seems to be in damage control mode.

    The election has never really been in doubt to me, but now it's less so than ever. McCain has a tough mountain to climb in a very short amount of time.
    [ reply ]
  6. voteSense voteSense 55 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 87% ] Obama 10 - 20 votes
    (more)
    cool topic. thanks. i have added this to my prediction channel: http://www.ziitrend.com/channel/voteS...
    [ reply ]
    1. einstin2 einstin2 54 days ago
      0 vote This is Good This is Bad
      Thanks, I figured someone had to put up an electoral college prediction. I don't know how accurate this one will be though.
       
  7. einstin2 einstin2 55 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 26% ] Obama 20 - 50 votes
    (more)
    Obama will prabably win the election but the rural states may put up a good fight.
    [ reply ]
Add a Comment
Join us to comment on this prediction.
OR
Sign in if you are already an existing member.
Copyright ©2008 ZiiTrend. All Rights Reserved. - User supplied content, unless specified, is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.5.
ZiiTrend, Ziibo, ZiiValue, IPredict icon, ZiiTrend logos, graphics, designs, layout, buttons, icons, and scripts are the trademarks of ZiiTrend.
Information is provided 'as is' and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice, and may be delayed.
(Served in 0.505 seconds)