Great Coalition in Germany dissolves in 2008

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Germany is currently ruled by a great coalition of its two major parties, the CDU and the SPD.

Ever since the coalition started, there has been in-fighting and squabbling. The coalition was formed mainly because no major party could form a majority coalition with any single minor party, and three-party coalitions are very unusual in Germany.

Will the great coalition last? This prediction says the great coalition will be officially dissolved before the end of the year. That means an official announcement as to that effect. If new elections are triggered for any reason, this prediction is also considered true.

Prediction Guideline

• Your score is calculated at the end of the closing day by: (outcome accuracy x time weight).
• Time weight represents how much time you hold your prediction. So the early you predict, the higher your score if you get it right.
• If you update your prediction, we will score all your update(s) based on their time weight.

STEP 1:  My Prediction

	ZiiValue (chance)	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	()	Possible Outcomes
	42%			Yes, the coalition dissolves
	58%			No, or at least not in 2008

STEP 2:  Comment

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