Google Knol vs. Wikipedia. Which will be more popular in 2 years?

Wikipedia is hot, but breaking at the seams. It has failed to gain the acceptance of the academic society, and that's where high-quality content for many topics would have to come from. Right now, Wikipedia is quickly becoming a collection of mundane and street-level knowledge, not an encyclopedia. By my guess, there's more articles on movies and rock bands than there is about entire fields of science. Two years from now, half of those movies and rock bands will be barely worth mentioning.

Wikipedia is also quickly losing it's "new and shiny" factor. Lots of people are disappointed with it by now, for a variety of reasons, and its administrative structure seems bogged down in in-fighting.

Since Knol is the only serious competitor right now (i.e. the only one with the required publicity), people will very likely jump there.

Wikipedia has the larger mental mind share of internet users, and it's open to anyone editing it. Thus it is unlikely to cause a change in behaviour over the next 2 years.
While writers may benefit more from Knol, there is a mindset amongst modern internet users that community-based information is just or even more reliable than commercial editing of any degree. (Even ad-based commercialism.) To get an idea of the quality of Wikipedia articles, just look up any mathematics topic.

Wikpedia is going to stay on the top.

It is impossilbe for Knol to overtake the place of Wikipedia in just 2 years or more.

Knol is so new it doesn't have a lot of articles in it. I think Google enter this game too late.

Just checked out Knol. It is very nice. And most articles are of very high quality. In fact it is closer to traditional encyclopedia articles compared to wikipedia. However, I am not how Knol will handle two articles by two different authors on the same subject. Are they going to favor one over the other based on author's popularity?

If I am the reader, I probably don't want to read two articles about the same subject twice.

As a knowledge database, I think quantity usually is more important than quality, especially as a first tier search. Knol will be very useful, but will never get as popular.