First Trade Day of Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange

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In a move aimed at strengthening Hong Kong as the financial capital of China, the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange on June 25 unveiled plans to launch its first product, oil contracts, by early next year. The exchange wants to capitalize on the booming demand for commodities in resource-hungry China.

Although China has three commodities exchanges of its own in Shanghai, Dalian, and Zhengzhou, they specialize in metals and agricultural products. While the Shanghai exchange has been trading oil futures based on physical delivery since August 2004, it only covers oil once it is imported; hence it's not fully integrated with international pricing. It is also priced in yuan and not open to international traders.

Will the China gov allow it? Will the new Exchange be launched successfully?

Let's predict its first trade day.

Prediction Guideline

• Your score is calculated at the end of the closing day by: (outcome accuracy x time weight).
• Time weight represents how much time you hold your prediction. So the early you predict, the higher your score if you get it right.
• If you update your prediction, we will score all your update(s) based on their time weight.

STEP 1:  My Prediction

	ZiiValue (chance)	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	()	Possible Outcomes
	1%			Before 2009
	24%			Q1 2009
	33%			Q2 2009
	42%			After Q2 2009 or Never

STEP 2:  Comment

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