Cuba: no more Castro by 2009?

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President Raul Castro is shoring up Cuba's one-party rule after a smooth leadership change from his brother Fidel, announcing a Communist Party congress that should cement the move to a more institutionalized power structure. Fidel Castro officially still heads the party as first secretary, and the congress is likely to select a new chief, ending his last formal claim to power. The younger Castro announced that the party will hold its first congress in a dozen years on a yet-unspecified date in the second half of 2009.

Since Cuba became a one-party republic and the Communist party became the official political party, Cuba has been both condemned and praised by certain Cuban groups, international groups, and foreign governments regarding democracy. Although the media is controlled by the state, the Cuban government contends that the Cuban political system is democratic.

Will the Castro's family be still in power? Will the local opposition parties overthrown the Communist?

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STEP 1:  My Prediction

	ZiiValue (chance)	MyValue (0% to 100% chance)	()	Possible Outcomes
	21%			No more Castro in power
	79%			Yes Castro in power

STEP 2:  Comment

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