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China: Abandon One-Child Policy?
oWell ( Score Rank: #14 based on predictions in the last 30 days ) oWell  |  closed on 01-Jul-2008 (60 days ago)
The Chinese government introduced the policy in 1979 to alleviate the overpopulation, social and environmental problems of China. The policy is controversial both within and outside China because of the human rights issues it raises; because of the manner in which the policy has been implemented; and because of concerns about negative economic and social consequences, such as imbalance numbers of male and female populations.

In 2008, China's political leadership is considering ending the country's hated "one-child" policy because it is damaging the economy and creating a demographic timebomb, a senior minister admitted today.

When will this population-control policy be ended?

inspired by: http://www.timesonline.co...
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Comments (8)
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  1. Homer Homer 51 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    This prediction cannot be answered until 2009. Let's wait patiently then. But I still think China abandoning one-child policy is unlikely.
  2. ancienthart ancienthart 141 days ago
    + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 100% ] After 2008 or never
    (more)
    It will happen, but only once China's level of poverty falls that children will be seen as a burden, rather than a source of cheap labour. Not before end of 2012 at least.
  3. black-shoulder black-shoulder 177 days ago
    + 2 votes This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 90% ] After 2008 or never
    (more)
    The next time the Chinese government admits that its existing policy isn't working, and openly "scrap and change" into a new policy will be its first. While the one-child policy will be abandoned for the reasons cited above, it will not be one where the leader will openly say that they are changing... instead, it will be much like the "85,000 policy" that Tung Chee-Wah had for Hong Kong's housing problems that just somehow becomes a "non-existent policy" in the not too distant future.
    1. walalala walalala 177 days ago
      + 1 vote This is Good This is Bad
      really ... but .. i guess the Chinese gov will have to announce it publicly so that all levels of gov will know what to do ... it's such a big change to the country.
       
  4. goog goog 178 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 100% ] After 2008 or never
    (more)
    This is a big change. It is wise to do it after the Olympics.
  5. goog goog 178 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    China got a one-child policy?! I am not sure that's a good thing.
  6. oWell oWell 178 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
  7. oWell oWell 178 days ago
    0 vote This is Good This is Bad
    predicted: [ Most Likely ] [ 71% ] 2nd-Half of 2008
    (more)
    perhaps right after Olympics !!
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